Myanmar: Cyclone Mocha - Flash Update #1 (As of 12 May 2023)

Highlights

• Communities and humanitarian organizations in Myanmar are preparing for the likely arrival of Cyclone Mocha which has formed in the Bay of Bengal and is predicted to make landfall this weekend.

• While the track and intensity of the cyclone are still evolving, most forecasts currently have the cyclone crossing the coast between Kyaukphyu in Myanmar’s Rakhine State and Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh on Sunday.

• This cyclone impact area in Rakhine is low-lying and highly prone to flooding. Heavy rains and strong winds are later expected to hit inland communities in the Northwest which are also prone to landslides and flooding.

• The Myanmar humanitarian Emergency Response Preparedness Plan has been activated nationwide since the start of the week. Humanitarian organizations, especially in Rakhine, have ramped up their preparedness efforts and have been pre-positioning personnel and supplies wherever possible. Preparedness is also being stepped up in the Northwest.

• OCHA is engaging with all relevant stakeholders to ensure timely and unimpeded access to those in need.

• Across Rakhine and the Northwest, there are already about six million people in need of humanitarian assistance and 1.2 million people displaced, even before the cyclone hits.

• An urgent injection of funds is desperately needed to facilitate a full-scale response to the Cyclone and any subsequent flooding. To date, the US$764M Humanitarian Response Plan is only 10 per cent funded.

Situation Overview

On 11 May, the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) issued a Red Storm Alert for Cyclone Mocha, which has formed in the Bay of Bengal and is currently forecast to cross the coast between Kyaukphyu in Myanmar and Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh on 14 May with maximum sustained wind speeds of 150-160 kmph, gusting to 175 kmph. A significant storm surge is expected to accompany the cyclone of 2-2.7m. Evacuation advice has been issued by local authorities in Rakhine for low-lying and coastal areas in Sittwe, Pauktaw, Myebon, Maungdaw and Buthidaung with many people already starting to move ahead of the storm. Associated heavy rains and strong winds are expected to affect Rakhine and areas of high displacement further inland in northwest Myanmar.

This is the first cyclone to threaten Myanmar this Monsoon season and there are grave concerns about the impact especially on the already vulnerable and displaced communities with reduced coping capacity. Of particular worry is the situation facing 232,100 people who are displaced across Rakhine. Many of the IDP camps and sites in Rakhine are located in low-lying coastal areas susceptible to storm surge. The suffering of more than a million displaced people and other communities in the Northwest is also expected to worsen over the coming days as the ex-cyclone moves inland bringing heavy rain. Displaced people in the Northwest are already living in precarious conditions in camps, displacement sites or in forests often without proper shelter. According to the 2023 Myanmar Humanitarian Needs Overview, there are already 6 million people in need of humanitarian assistance in the most likely affected areas of Rakhine (1.7M) and the Northwest (4.3M – Chin, Magway and Sagaing).